Betfair Uk Politics Odds

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The prospect of taking on a fatally wounded Trump for the presidency will tempt anyone with ambition. In an extremely open heat, for which could at least 20 names are plausible, here’s my current top-ten.

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Beto O’Rourke

Many argue that the Democrat list lacks a standout candidate – a star. O’Rourke would perfectly fit that void. He combines Barack Obama’s politics and inspiring rhetoric with Bernie Sanders’ ability to attract huge crowds, and Bobby Kennedy’s looks. If anyone can drive turnout for the left – which may prove decisive in 2020 – it is Beto.

We don’t know whether he’ll run, but he will certainly be pressured to do so by the army of nationwide supporters built during a gallant campaign for Texas. Despite refusing corporate ‘PAC’ money in favour of small donors – a salient issue on the Left – he raised more than any Senatorial candidate in history. He drew enormous crowds everywhere and his narrow defeat read very well compared to other Democrat Senate contenders in pro-Trump states. The wider electorate is much more fertile.

I first tipped O’Rourke for president at 50.0 months ago and went in again at 17.0 after the mid-terms. That defeat leaves him free to run if and constant speculation is guaranteed. Hypothetical match-up polls will soon emerge and drive the narrative. I predict they’ll show O’Rourke beating Trump by double-digits.

Democrat Nominee odds:
2020 Presidential odds:

Kamala Harris

Harris is top-rated in the betting and her chance is obvious. The party is becoming ever more diverse from top to bottom and there’s a very strong grassroots drive to pick female leaders. Critically, she is a Senator for California – whose primary will play a pivotal role from an earlier position on the schedule.

Given a high-profile role in the Senate, she won’t lack publicity. She’s very much on the front line in the bitter row over immigration and investigating Trump. However she is only one of several high-ranking women in contention and it isn’t clear yet that Harris has what it takes to stand out in a presidential primary.

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Sherrod Brown

Brown’s Senate defence in Ohio reads as good as any mid-term result. He won by 6.4% – up on 2012 despite the state moving notably away from the Democrats during that period. On the same night, they failed to win the Governorship. If flipping this state in a general election, the presidency would be assured.

Amid much excitement online, Brown has confirmed he’s seriously considering a run. He is firmly on the left of the party, closely allied to Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, but backed Clinton and was apparently on her VP shortlist. A national stage is a big step up for this Ohio veteran but he’s well-placed to be the standard bearer for progressives and his white working-class support should terrify Trump.

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Kirsten Gillibrand

A high-profile experienced Senator from New York who has been among the most vocal MeToo campaigners. A strong resume on paper but Gillibrand alienated key supporters by criticising Bill Clinton and Al Franken over sexual abuse. Nevertheless everything about her behaviour points towards a run and perhaps those controversies will now work to her advantage.

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Amy Klobuchar

Another mid-terms star, Klobuchar retained her Minnesota Senate seat by 24%, thriving among all-important suburban women following a strong performance during the Kavanaugh hearings. Her profile is rising fast and she’s openly considering a run. Her state neighbours Iowa and her relatively moderate centrist style would be ideal to win Independents against Trump.

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Joe Biden

Don’t overstate Biden’s early poll lead. At this stage, the former VP enjoys a vast name recognition advantage and he is hugely popular. He’s also 76 and in a party where old, white men are out of fashion. I don’t expect ‘Uncle Joe’ to run but do expect he’ll enjoy teasing the media. If I’m wrong, though, he would destroy Trump.

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Elizabeth Warren

Warren’s low position may surprise. She is a darling of the Left and, with hindsight, should have taken on Clinton in 2016. However I’ve never been certain she had presidential ambitions and it feels increasingly like her chance has faded. She fares worse than rivals in head-to-head polls versus Trump and self-harmed when taking a DNA test to prove distant Native American heritage. I think she’ll hand Brown a massive endorsement.

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Bernie Sanders

Will Bernie try again? Like Warren, his decisions are keenly awaited. Now 77, Sanders remains the leader of a growing progressive movement and attracts huge crowds, but his preferred candidates didn’t fare so well in the mid-terms. I can envisage him winning primaries against this crowded field with a 35% vote share. I can equally see him backing Sherrod Brown – who has wider appeal and a less defined image.

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Michael Bloomberg

Here’s a wild-card. Formerly Republican Mayor of New York, Bloomberg has switched sides. Cash won’t be a problem for this self-financing billionaire, who would surely relish comparing his philanthropic record with Trump. Whilst his politics are probably not left enough for a Democrat primary, he oozes gravitas and could have a moderating impact in debates. Primary turnout will be huge, involving many independents, amongst whom he could play extremely well.

2020 Presidential odds:

Michael Avenatti

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After 2016, we dismiss unconventional social media masters at our peril. Representing porn star Stormy Daniels may not be an obvious route to the presidency, but Avenatti became an overnight star, positioned as a ‘fighter for good’, leading The Resistance. In taking down Michael Cohen, he landed a blow on Trump that no politician has yet mustered. He seems near certain to run and, as Trump’s legal travails continue, will remain all over the media.

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OTHERS

Don’t believe the hype. Hillary Clinton won’t run and if she did, humiliating defeat awaits. Time has moved on. Cory Booker has been touring the key states and will likely run. The moves of Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper imply the same.

As Governor of Montana, Steve Bullock is another who has proved he can win in a Trump state. Finally former Attorney General Eric Holder seems to be dipping his toe in the water and could gain establishment backing from both Obama and Clinton supporters.

CONCLUSION

No Democratic Nominee can match Beto O’Rourke for star power and momentum. I’ve backed him several times and will continue doing so. However, his value has diminished significantly.

The remaining stand out bet is Sherrod Brown. I’m anticipating big support from Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, and am backing the Ohio Senator at big odds. He’s $30+ to just be nominated, where I mark him in single digits.

BETTING STRATEGY

BACK Beto O’Rourke for the US Presidency at $9 or above

BACK Sherrod Brown for the Democratic Nominee at $20 or above
BACK Sherrod Brown for the US Presidency at $34 or above

Will Trump Resign?

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This is an important distinction. It remains very hard to see 23 Republican Senators convicting their president. Trump’s base remains loyal. However, a few more weeks of this terrible news cycle, which would be elevated in the case of a Senate trial, and vulnerable incumbents may start to panic. Most notably Senate leader Mitch McConnell is facing a serious challenge in Kentucky.

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Pressure could, theoretically at least, be brought to bear. The case of the last president to leave office early – Richard Nixon – is pertinent. ‘Tricky Dicky’ never faced the Senate trial – he resigned, handing power to his Vice President Gerald Ford, and duly received a pardon.

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Whether he listens or not, Trump must be receiving similar legal advice. As Robert Mueller made clear, he is not immune from prosecution after leaving office. Asides from the particular allegations that led to impeachment, dozens of criminal and congressional investigations are ongoing, for which Trump could yet be liable. The implications of the Russia investigation have not fully played out yet – Roger Stone’s trial in November will likely release information from redacted sections of the Mueller Report.