Iowa Democratic Odds
Our latest forecast for how many pledged delegates each candidate will win after all states have voted
FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate, accounting for the margin of their wins and losses, plus the possibility that a trailing candidate might drop out. The chart shows how many delegates, on average, each candidate is projected to have pledged to them at each point in the primary season, along with a range of possible delegate counts. We’re also showing the distribution of simulated final pledged delegate counts in the table, where taller bars mean a more likely outcome.
FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate, accounting for the margin of their wins and losses, plus the possibility that a trailing candidate might drop out. We’re showing the distribution of simulated final pledged delegate counts in the table, where taller bars mean a more likely outcome.
The Iowa Electronic Markets is a futures market run for research and teaching purposes. Traders can buy and sell real-money contracts based on their belief about the outcome of an election or other event. Using this 'wisdom of crowds,' the price of a contract at any given time is a forecast of the outcome. — The chance of a contested Democratic convention has increased after the muddle of the Iowa caucuses, raising anxieties ahead of Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary.
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Iowa Democratic Odds Against
Iowa Democratic Primary Betting Odds
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